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Home > News Updates > News Headlines
News Headlines

PHL IMPORTS TO BOOST GLOBAL RICE TRADE
8/29/2017

MALAYA BUSINESS INSIGHT – 29/08/2017

PHL IMPORTS TO BOOST GLOBAL RICE TRADE

The Philippines will boost global rice trade this year to the third-highest on record.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its latest global rice trade forecast mid-August by 700,000 million tons to 43.2 million tons. It’s seven percent larger than a year earlier and the third-highest on record. 

The Philippines’ 2017 import forecast was raised 200,000 tons to 1.6 million tons based on a recent government tender for 250,000 tons and expectations of another 800,000 tons purchased by private buyers by yearend.

Among importers, larger purchases by the Philippines, Cote d’Ivoire, Cuba, Guinea, Iraq, Madagascar, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Sierra Leone and the United Arab Emirates are projected to more than offset reduced imports by Bangladesh, China, Egypt, Laos and Sri Lanka.

The substantial year-to-year increase in exports is largely due to increased shipments from Burma, China, India, the United States and Vietnam.  

In 2017, global imports are being boosted by substantially larger purchases by the Philippines, Bangladesh, China, Ecuador, Madagascar, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Sri Lanka. In contrast, Indonesia’s 2017 imports are projected to decline 500,000 tons and Colombia’s imports to drop to 110,000 tons.

There were five export revisions for 2017, four upward revisions and one reduction. First, India’s 2017 export forecast was raised 500,000 tons to 11 million tons based on a strong pace to date, especially to top regional buyers Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Iran, Iraq and Senegal have been strong buyers this year as well. 

Second, Vietnam’s 2017 export forecast was raised 200,000 tons to 6 million tons based on a strong shipment pace to date, with sales especially strong to the Philippines and China. Both India and Vietnam are major exporters.

Third, China’s 2017 export forecast was raised 100,000 tons to 900,000 tons based on larger than expected sales to West Africa, especially to Cote d’Ivoire and Sierra Leone. China’s exports in 2017 are up 145 percent from a year earlier and the highest since 2007. From 2011 to 2016, China’s annual exports averaged just 371,000 tons. Prior to 2008, China was a major exporter, typically shipping 1 to 2 million tons annually, sometimes more. 

Fourth, Turkey’s 2017 export forecast was raised 25,000 tons to 75,000 tons based on shipment pace. Finally, Australia’s 2017 export forecast was lowered 20,000 tons to 180,000 tons based on a slow start to sales this year despite adequate supplies.

Sri Lanka’s 2017 import forecast was raised 300,000 tons to a record 700,000 tons based on recent strong buying from regional sources and tight supplies. In years of a normal crop harvest, Sri Lanka typically imports only a small amount of rice, mostly from India. 

Bangladesh’s 2017 imports were increased 100,000 tons to 800,000 tons based on large purchases this spring and summer and a smaller crop. 

In the global market, 2017/18 production forecasts were reduced for Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the US. The 2017/18 global consumption forecast was lowered 0.6 million tons based on smaller expected total use in Bangladesh, US and Vietnam. 

With global production exceeding consumption in 2017/18, global ending stocks are projected to increase three percent year-to-year to 122.9 million tons, up 400,000 tons from the previous forecast and the highest since 2001/02. Thailand’s price quotes continue to decline while US long-grain price quotes increased further.

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